Thesis:

Planificación resiliente de la transmisión del SEN ante escenarios de eventos climáticos extremos

This investigation presents an iterative methodology for resilience-oriented transmission expansion planning considering extreme wind events. The proposed framework comprises four independent modules: extreme wind characterization, conventional transmission expansion planning, operational assessment under event-induced outages, and reinforcement candidate selection. Extreme wind profiles are used to generate line-corridor and circuit-level outage scenarios through temporal downscaling, fragility curves, and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The resulting contingencies are first evaluated on a conventional expansion plan using an upper-tail energy not served (ENS) criterion to identify critical cases. These cases are then assessed using operational performance indices. The methodology is applied to the Chilean National Electric System over the 2021–2030 horizon. Results show that line failure-mode assumptions have a direct effect on the security indices: expected energy not served (EENS) per contingency increases from 0.15 [MWh] under independent failures to 9.25 [MWh] under common-mode failures. Moreover, applying the extreme-weather factor 𝑲 before event identification gives 31.25 [MWh], compared with 10.23 [MWh] when it is applied afterwards. The critical cases also support different reinforcement candidates, linking BESS deployment to localized buses with critical ENS, structural reinforcement to recurrent vulnerable corridors, and parallel line construction to power-transfer bottlenecks.